DSGE pileups

The sampling distribution of estimators for DSGE structural parameters tends to be non-normal and/or pile up on the boundary of the theoretically admissible parameter space. This calls into question both the reliability of asymptotic approximations and the presumption of correct specification. This paper seeks to develop a conceptual framework for understanding how these phenomena arise, and to provide pragmatic methods for dealing with them in practice. The results are presented in three examples and a medium scale DSGE model.     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

Framing the usefulness of eHRM in talent management: A case study of talent identification in a professional services firm

As talent management evolves from intuitive to evidence‐based decision‐making, the role of electronic Human Resource Management (eHRM) to gather, distribute, and analyze data becomes more critical. However, surprisingly few academic studies investigate the role of technology in talent management. Drawing on a qualitative case study of talent management in a large professional services firm, this paper critically examines how eHRM information technologies are framed as useful within talent identification discourses. The findings reveal two distinct but interrelated sets of processes employed to identify talent and suggest that the perceived usefulness and centrality of eHRM are influenced by how stakeholders shape their understanding of effective talent management. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of perceived service quality on repurchase intentions and subjective well-being of Chinese tourists: The mediating role of relationship quality

The current study provides and tests an integrated model that examines two relationship quality constructs (overall customer satisfaction, customer-company identification) as mediating variables between Chinese tourists' lodging service quality perceptions and two outcomes (repurchase intentions, subjective well-being). The results of a study with domestic Chinese hotel guests (n = 451) provide support for the proposed model. Specifically, the results indicate that overall customer satisfaction fully mediates the relationship between perceived service quality and repurchase intentions and subjective well-being, respectively. Customer-company identification partially mediates the relationship between perceived service quality and repurchase intentions and subjective wellbeing, respectively. We provide empirical validation that customers do, indeed, identify with hospitality providers, and this, in-turn, provides positive consequences for both the service provider (i.e., repurchase intentions) and the customer (i.e., subjective well-being). Managerial implications are provided, limitations noted, and future research directions suggested.     

Achieving relational outcomes in casual dining restaurants through consumer commitment

The purpose of the study is to identify how we can achieve positive word-of-mouth (WOM) and share of purchases through consumer commitment in casual dining restaurants. This study proposes the theory of organizational commitment and the framework of the relationship development process as the theoretical foundation to identify the antecedents of consumer commitment (i.e. identification, switching costs, and satisfaction), and tests the role of consumer commitment between its antecedents and relational outcomes (i.e. share of purchases and positive WOM). The results of the study support that commitment plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between its antecedents and share of purchases. In addition, commitment exerts a full mediating role on the effects of identification and switching costs on positive WOM intentions, while it plays a partial mediating role between satisfaction and positive WOM intentions. Managerial implications are discussed to maximize delivering relational outcomes based on consumer commitment and its antecedents.     

大型交叉安全风险识别与评估

大型交叉施工具有建筑结构复杂、设备集中、人员密度大、环境密闭等特点,一旦结构发生安全事故,后果严重,而风险识别和评估可以结合施工的实际情况,对其中的各种危险源进行分类,并进行定量与定性评价。文章从风险特点及类型、风险分析依据及步骤、风险评估流程,最后得出风险识别与评估结论:工程项目风险识别与评估应是一个经常性反复循环的活动,是一个动态的过程。     

乡村旅游主题下休闲农业发展研究——以山西省100个3 A级乡村旅游示范村为例

以山西省首批100个3A级乡村旅游示范村为研究对象,运用最近邻指数、地理集中指数、核密度分析等空间分析方法及建立乡村旅游资源分类体系,对其空间结构和分类特征进行测度。结果表明:样本点空间分布为集聚型,分布高密度区域主要在山西省中东部、东南部和南部,北部和西部分布密度较低。山西省休闲旅游资源丰富,为乡村旅游提供了大量资源,五种乡村发展类型中,特色文化型村庄占比最大,休闲农庄和城郊发展型村庄相对较少。最后根据研究结果提出相关建议。     

Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy-based moment selection

In this paper, we make five contributions to the literature on information and entropy in generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. First, we introduce the concept of the long run canonical correlations (LRCCs) between the true score vector and the moment function f(_vt,_θ0)$f(v_t,{\theta }_0)$ and show that they provide a metric for the information contained in the population moment condition E[f(_vt,_θ0)]=0$\mathrm{E}[f(v_t,{\theta }_0)]=0$. Second, we show that the entropy of the limiting distribution of the GMM estimator can be written in terms of these LRCCs. Third, motivated by the above results, we introduce an information criterion based on this entropy that can be used as a basis for moment selection. Fourth, we introduce the concept of nearly redundant moment conditions and use it to explore the connection between redundancy and weak identification. Fifth, we analyse the behaviour of the aforementioned entropy-based moment selection method in two scenarios of interest; these scenarios are: (i) nonlinear dynamic models where the parameter vector is identified by all the combinations of moment conditions considered; (ii) linear static models where the parameter vector may be weakly identified for some of the combinations considered. The first of these contributions rests on a generalized information equality that is proved in the paper, and may be of interest in its own right.     

悖论式领导对员工工作绩效的影响：二元工作激情和角色认同的作用

依据企业员工调查问卷数据,基于自我决定理论,考量悖论式领导对员工工作绩效的作用机制和边界条件。结果表明：悖论式领导与员工角色内绩效、角色外绩效均显著正相关,和谐型工作激情在其中发挥中介作用,强迫型工作激情仅中介悖论式领导与角色内绩效之间的关系;角色认同削弱了悖论式领导与和谐型工作激情的正向关系,但会强化悖论式领导对强迫型工作激情的负向影响。     

基于CPM网络的关键链汇人缓冲设置研究

关键链管理作为作为项目管理的新一代技术为项目管理提供了新的工具——缓冲区,研究人员可以利用缓冲区结合应用广泛的甘特图技术和CPM网络技术来研究非确定工期项目的管理,这使得原有理论的可移植性大为增强。然而在关键链缓冲区的研究中,汇入缓冲区计算对象即汇入链的定义一直没有明确的界定,这使得缓冲区的计算存在随意性;在工序前后逻辑关系相对复杂的情况下汇入链的识别就成为一个难点。论文对汇入链的识别和汇入缓冲设置问题展开研究,首先根据汇入链的本质对汇入链进行了定义,并利用CPM网络机动时间的性质给出了汇入链的识别的一般方法。其次研究了CPM双代号网络中缓冲区设置问题,并通过添加带有时间参数的缓冲节点解决了缓冲区的表示问题。最后论文通过算例对基于CPM网络对关键链汇入缓冲区设置的步骤进行说明。